The 2018 Oscar ceremony is nearly upon us, bringing to a close the annual tradition known in cinephile circles as “The Grouchy Season”!
In past years, I’ve grouched along, with alternative nominations for every category (either from the previous year’s releases or from the Nicolas Cage canon, as appropriate). But who has time for that? In any case, even while agreeing that the Academy has been consistently wrong for 90 straight years, the nominees for 2018 Oscars are far from the worst we could’ve reasonably expected. (Looking at you, 78th Academy Awards.)
Recent attempts to revamp and expand the universe of voters seem to have helped: it’s hard to imagine Get Out, Lady Bird, or Call Me By Your Name figuring so prominently in previous years, for one thing. Or perhaps that’s less a reflection of structural changes in the process than larger shifts in the culture. Either way, it’s a welcome change — Black voices, women’s voices, queer narratives, genre movies, personal visions, Meryl Streep. (Ok, maybe not the last part.) Here’s to incremental progress and inclusion, anyway.
Click through for my 2018 Oscar predictions — not my favorites of the year (that list is here), but what I anticipate will win this Sunday. If the past is any guide, I will probably be more wrong than right, so don’t bet the farm on these tips, but it’s all a guessing game anyway. Let’s guess!


2017 was, among other things, a big year for the Fish-people who live among us, with 
A 3-hour Buñuel-like feast of false starts and farcical interruptions, filled with offhand discussions of Romanian post-Communism, faulty power outlets, religious tradition and modernity, and claustrophobic family dynamics?
The flat-out most enjoyable, satisfying release of 2017 (and 
So this is what it looks like when
With its self-consciously lo-fi costuming, extended single-take depiction of a woman eating a pie, and the sudden appearance of Will Oldham waxing cosmic and philosophical at some indeterminate dinner table of the future,
“Film,”
There was no more visceral experience in movie theaters this year than